Mining. Mining Everywhere.

There were a lot of updates yesterday. To avoid making Ghost Bites an unwieldy beast today, I’m focusing only on the mining updates. Everything else will be covered tomorrow morning.

Before we get to the company news, I’m excited to bring you the latest podcast with the team from Satrix.

The ETF champions are expanding in Africa by listing instruments in various countries. I spoke to Duma Mxenge about the strategy used by Satrix and how far away we are from an “Africa Basket” ETF. This is well worth 20 minutes of your time. Get it here.

Calgro M3 (JSE: CGR) is joining us on Unlock the Stock this week. Goodness knows there’s a lot to discuss after their latest results came out. Register here to attend.

Looking for something you’ve read recently? This link has all the previous editions of Ghost Mail (and Ghost Mail Weekender). Share it with your friends and bring them into the community!

Starting with the quarterly activities report at BHP (JSE: BHG), full year guidance is unchanged across the board. This tells us that things have been largely in line with company expectations.

But this doesn’t mean that production went up!

For example, copper production fell by 19% year-on-year, driven by planned grade declines and scheduled maintenance, as well as other factors like the weather in Chile and various operational challenges. That’s a pity, as copper prices were 53% higher than a year ago.

Bulk commodities did well despite maintenance in this quarter, with Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) setting records at the mine and port with production growth of 4% year-on-year. Iron ore prices were down 9% in USD terms though, so they certainly aren’t enjoying the pricing tailwind that we are seeing in copper.

Steelmaking coal grew production by 1% and enjoyed a price increase of 34% year-on-year.

Energy coal production jumped by 26% at a time when prices were up 23%, so that’s very encouraging.

The investment in potash is getting closer to fruition, with stage 1 of the Jansen project now 87% complete.

Then we have another big name in the sector: Anglo American (JSE: AGL). The geographical profile of the group means that the winter weather in Chile has played a role here as well. Still, Anglo is also on track to meet their FY26 guidance, with copper ore grades expected to improve in the final quarter of the year.

I’ll deal with the so-called “simplified portfolio” first. Year-to-date copper and premium iron ore dipped by 1% and 3% respectively, while manganese ore production increased by 31%. If we isolate the latest quarter, copper and premium iron ore fell by 5% and 4% respectively, while manganese iron ore was up 6%.

Moving on to the businesses that Anglo American is getting rid of, we find a 4% year-to-date increase in steelmaking coal production. The quarterly jump is much higher at 53%! The sale of steelmaking coal to Dhilmar is on track to complete by the first quarter of 2027.

The nickel business saw production decline by 3% year-to-date and increase by 3% for the quarter. The group is currently working through the EU regulatory approval process to sell that asset.

And then the bright, shiny elephant in the room: De Beers.

Production is up by 22% year-to-date, so I think the game is up in terms of mined diamonds being rare things. Having said that, production was down by 11% in the latest quarter due to planned maintenance and a slowdown ahead of the previously announced production pause.

They really are trying everything here, but diamond prices just keep dropping.

Very few people have the money or the interest in mined diamonds vs. identical lab-grown alternatives at a fraction of the price.

Anglo says that the company continues to “work towards a transaction in a challenging market, having taken decisive action to protect cash and preserve value” at De Beers. Disruption is a helluva thing.

Next up is Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO), part of the Anglo stable. Total production fell by 19% year-on-year due to the temporary shutdown of the Sishen dense-media-separation plant.

I really hope that nobody ever refers to me as dense media!

Thanks to the levels of finished stock at the ports, sales increased by 3%. Finished stock has now declined from 7.0 Mt to 4.8 Mt. They were able to successfully absorb the impact of lower production.

It really says a lot about our rail infrastructure in this country that Kumba has to carefully manage the difference between stock at the mine and stock at the port. Case in point: ore railed to port declined by 8%, largely driven by a derailment that impacted volumes.

Export iron ore prices didn’t play ball this quarter, impacted by Chinese steel mill profitability challenges. Kumba is still achieving a premium to the benchmark price due to the quality of its premium product, but the year-to-date decline in dollar pricing is 6%.

Cost guidance for the year is unchanged, with Sishen expected to be at the upper end of the range and Kolomela expected to be at the lower end.

Onwards to DRDGOLD (JSE: DRD) and an operating update for the quarter ended September 2026, a period in which the average gold price received increased by 14% on a year-on-year basis.

It was down by 6% sequentially though, so there’s plenty of debate around where the gold price might go from here.

DRDGOLD can’t control the price, but it can control production. Gold production increased by 10% year-on-year and 2% sequentially, in both cases supported by improving yield despite a decrease in tonnage throughput.

Sales can deviate from production, with gold sales up 14% year-on-year and flat sequentially. This led to a 31% increase in revenue year-on-year, but a 6% decline sequentially.

Cash operating costs were driven by higher input costs like diesel, as well as increased purchasing and processing of higher-grade third-party material. Electricity and labour costs are always a factor as well.

Overall, operating costs increased by 12% year-on-year and 6% sequentially.

Add it all together and you’ll find incredible variance in operating profit depending on which base period you use. On a year-on-year basis, operating profit was up by 42%. But sequentially, it fell by 14%.

Operating leverage essentially amplifies the change in the gold price, leading to bigger swings in operating profit than in the underlying commodity.

The company is in a significant capex cycle at the moment, with various Vision 2028 projects underway. Growth capex was very high in the quarter ended June (R1.16 billion), so the latest quarter looks tame in comparison at R556 million (down 52%). Growth capex is also down 29% year-on-year.

Sustaining capex tells a different story though, up 22% sequentially and 132% year-on-year.

The group remains debt free despite all this capex. They have access to bank financing, but for now the R2.45 billion on the balance sheet is adequately supporting the business.

For context, the free cash inflow in this quarter was R725.8 million, benefitting from solid profitability and relatively lower growth capex.

DRDGOLD has reaffirmed its FY27 production and operating cost guidance.

At Tharisa (JSE: THA), the first wheeled renewable energy from Etana Energy was received in September 2026. This will meet roughly 10% of the Tharisa Mine’s current monthly electricity demand.

That’s obviously good news for the reduction of energy costs and the improvement of environmental metrics.

There’s more to come, with Etana Energy forecast to supply 70% of Tharisa Mine’s current electricity demand over the long term.

I must point out that these percentages relate only to the open pit operation, not the planned underground project which is expected to double the operation’s electricity demand.

And finally, Neal Froneman has officially been appointed as the chairman of Copper 360 (JSE: CPR).  It’s going to be very interesting to see how this plays out with his involvement.

Do your own research and speak to your financial advisor. Nothing you read or listen to in Ghost Mail should be interpreted as financial advice. This is not a complete review of SENS and does not replace the need for you to refer to company announcements and reports yourself. Every effort is made to avoid errors in Ghost Bites and related podcasts, but I am only human.

US markets ended Tuesday mostly higher, recovering from early losses as better than expected earnings, a record rally in healthcare stocks and softer oil prices lifted sentiment on Wall Street.

After the close, SpaceX rallied as revenue more than doubled and its AI unit swung to a profit, while Elon Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a merger. Netflix fell on disappointing fourth quarter sales guidance. This morning, US futures are pointing higher, led by the Nasdaq, while Dow futures are flat. Asian markets are also firmer as the AI trade revives ahead of results from Meta and Tesla after tonight's close.

Talks to end the war between the US and Iran continue and were largely responsible for the drop in crude prices on Tuesday afternoon, although subsequent reports suggest that assumptions of an imminent deal are misplaced. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in Tehran on his first visit since the war began in February, as Moscow positions itself as a mediator, while Pakistan's army chief has also met with Iranian officials.

The dollar is slightly firmer this morning after slipping on Tuesday. US Treasury yields are little changed, with the 10 year yield steady at around 5.13% after weak housing data drove a modest rally in bonds yesterday. Gold trades around $4,115 an ounce and is on course for a third consecutive losing session.

The rand is slightly weaker this morning, and we expect a flat open for the JSE All Share index.

On the local front, attention turns to CPI data this morning and the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement this afternoon.

This update is provided by Shaun Murison, Senior Market Analyst at randswiss.com. Connect with him on LinkedIn here and follow him on X here.

Key Indicators: 

USD/ZAR R16.41/$ | US 10yr 5.13% | Gold $4,115/oz | Platinum $1,641/oz | Brent Crude $110.33