Santova's growth

It was a light day of news on Friday, but Santova (JSE: SNV) gave us a trading statement that created a useful opportunity for me to explain why you should always think about the base effect when you see a high growth rate. You’ll find that analysis (and a few other goodies) in Ghost Bites below.

Curious about how STADIO (JSE: SDO) has managed to achieve its growth targets and reward shareholders with strong returns in recent years?

Perhaps more importantly, how will the company continue to grow?

In a recent podcast with the CEO and CFO, we focused on the underlying strategy at STADIO and how this translates into financial growth.

In the words of CEO Chris Vorster:

"To scale a higher education institution, one of your biggest threats would be that you lose quality...we believe that with our new academic model, we will tick the quality box first while we scale the business."

And from CFO Ishak Kula, a reminder about operating leverage:

"In education, you incur a lot of your costs before the first student walks through the door."

Ready to dig in? All the details on this podcast (including the transcript) are available here.

Capitec’s (JSE: CPI) strong results this week are available for you to read on the Ghost Mail website. The official narrative is always worth checking out, with Capitec focusing on how diversified the business has become. My thanks to Capitec for their support of my work in Ghost Mail.

Looking for something you’ve read recently? This link has all the previous editions of Ghost Mail (and Ghost Mail Weekender). Share it with your friends and bring them into the community!

Santova (JSE: SNV) gave us a trading statement to think about before the weekend, reflecting an impressive jump in HEPS of between 55.4% and 60.4% for the six months to 31 August 2026.

But before getting too excited, there are a few things to consider here.

Firstly, HEPS in the comparable period was restated downwards from 37.1 cents to 35.68 cents. That makes it an easier base for comparison.

Then, if we use that restated number, the comparable period had suffered a decline in HEPS of 26% vs. the prior year. This means that a more useful measure may be the two-year growth stack (as the Americans like to call it).

Using the midpoint of the guided range, HEPS has grown by 16.8% over two years, equivalent to a CAGR of 8.1% per year. Not bad, but not nearly as exciting as the trading statement might suggest.

Another important point to keep in mind is that the Seabourne Group numbers have been included for the full period, skewing the performance. It’s just hard to know how meaningful this impact is, so we have to wait for results to be released on 27 October before drawing any meaningful conclusions about the growth rate.

In the meantime, the company has given some positive commentary about the underlying operations. They’ve indicated stronger trading across the group operations, driven in part by higher freight rates. The company also called out the UK and Netherlands as particular areas of strength – not something you’ll read very often!

The share price closed 4% higher on the day, suggesting that the market appreciated this performance. But Santova is flat over 12 months and 3 years, with an incredibly choppy share price since the rally in 2022:

Unlike many other JSE small- and mid-caps trading on a single-digit Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple, there haven’t been any decent dividends over this period to reward shareholders for sticking around. A modest P/E doesn’t mean much if there’s no dividend payout ratio or obvious catalyst for an upward move.

At least range traders might have made some money along the way, as there’s been plenty of action between R7 and R8 per share.

Glencore (JSE: GLN) has received an important approval in Argentina for the MARA project. Part of this is the Alumbrera restart, which is running ahead of schedule. First production is now expected in H2 2027 (vs. the original guidance of H1 2028).

The prize at the end of all this? An ore body with copper, gold, silver and molybdenum. But the real focus here is firmly on the copper component, with Glencore chasing the commodity that is getting everyone excited at the moment.

Elsewhere on the market, Calgro M3 (JSE: CGR) has attracted something unusual on the JSE: a German shareholder. HANSAINVEST Hanseatische Investment GmbH (really rolls off the tongue) now has 5.03% in the company.

MTN (JSE: MTN) announced that MTN Ghana has been awarded spectrum for a period of 15 years. This requires an investment of $202 million that had already been incorporated into the free cash flow outlook for the company.

Novus (JSE: NVS) has bought up some more shares in Mustek (JSE: MST). The latest purchase of R621k in shares takes Novus to a 57.70% direct holding and a 77.99% holding together with concert parties. Separately, Novus announced that the disposal of the print letting enterprise has been finalised and transfer has taken place.

Finally, a director of Truworths (JSE: TRU) bought shares worth R729k.

Do your own research and speak to your financial advisor. Nothing you read or listen to in Ghost Mail should be interpreted as financial advice. This is not a complete review of SENS and does not replace the need for you to refer to company announcements and reports yourself. Every effort is made to avoid errors in Ghost Bites and related podcasts, but I am only human.

Weaker than expected US jobs data on Friday further reduced rate hike expectations for October, helping equity markets close on a positive footing.

The US 10 year yield is trading at around 5.25% this morning. Friday's brief rally in Treasuries on the weak payrolls print reversed, leaving the yield higher by close. The dollar weakness that accompanied the US data has since abated, and we are seeing early pressure on gold and precious metal prices to start the week.

Oil is easing this morning after G7 leaders agreed on Friday to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude and fuel from emergency stocks through the IEA.

Markets in South Korea and China are closed for public holidays. The Hang Seng is slightly softer, while Japan's Nikkei is notably firmer in a rally led by AI tech stocks.

The rand is softer against a once again firming dollar, and we expect a flat to negative open for the JSE All Share Index.

This update is provided by Shaun Murison, Senior Market Analyst at randswiss.com. Connect with him on LinkedIn here and follow him on X here.

Key Indicators: 

USD/ZAR R16.68/$ | US 10yr 5.27% | Gold $4,142/oz | Platinum $1,729/oz | Brent Crude $101.25