Rolling into OUTsurance
It’s funny how the stories in a particular week can unintentionally have a similar theme.
Just yesterday, I wrote about Sanlam (JSE: SLM) swooping in on Santam (JSE: SNT) to acquire the shares held by minority shareholders and delist the company. Today, you’ll learn about OUTsurance Group (JSE: OUT) finally rolling up the remaining shareholders in unlisted subsidiary OUTsurance Holdings Limited.
These are two very different deals once you understand the nuances, but both transactions involve the biggest names in short-term insurance in South Africa.
The core difference is that Sanlam wants to acquire the remaining 37.3% in another listed company, so that’s a difficult and highly regulated transaction that will take a long time to complete.
Over at OUTsurance, the group needs to acquire just 7.17% of the shares in OUTsurance Holdings to achieve full ownership. This is after they’ve been mopping up those minorities in piecemeal transactions for quite some time. Still, there will be some regulatory requirements to meet, as this is a related party transaction under the JSE Listings Requirements.
I’ve written on the OUTsurance deal in Ghost Bites further down, as well as the latest numbers from Alphamin (JSE: APH).
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Ghost Bites: Making sense of SENS
OUTsurance (JSE: OUT) is finally set to remove the confusion between OUTsurance Group (the listed company) and OUTsurance Holdings (the unlisted subsidiary that holds the main insurance assets).
This has been coming for a long time, as OUTsurance has been doing share-for-share transactions with the minority shareholders in OUTsurance Holdings (mainly current executives and insiders) for as long as I can remember. Now they will acquire the remaining 7.17% in one transaction (assuming all conditions are met).
There’s a lot of history here, including legacy assets held through RMI Treasury Company and a number of things that needed to happen at the group before this transaction would be possible.
But beyond the structuring elements, I think the encouraging signal to the market is that those executives (and the founder) feel comfortable rolling up to the top structure and aligning themselves fully with the listed company’s shareholders. This implies that OUTsurance Group isn’t likely to do anything crazy outside of the OUTsurance Holdings business.
This comfort stems from a consistently defined and executed strategy. When OUTsurance goes offshore, they do it in a measured fashion. They take their time to build out the risk curves and understand the local market. That’s a very different approach to pursuing large acquisitions and not fully understanding what you’ve bought.
The announcement includes an incredibly detailed description of how they’ve arrived at the exchange ratio for the deal (i.e. the valuation applied to the transaction). Kudos to management for this level of transparency, as you won’t often see this level of detail.
The many adjustments include concepts like the central assets and associated costs, as well as ongoing listed company expenses and an estimate of what it would take to list OUTsurance Holdings instead.
I’m not going to go into all the underlying calculations here, but the number to keep in mind is that the 7.17% stake is valued at R10.2 billion. For context, if just that stake was listed, it would be a decent mid-cap on the JSE. Yes, OUTsurance is a big business.
There are a number of regulatory hoops to jump over. Due to this being a related party transaction, OUTsurance Group shareholders will also be asked to vote on the deal.
Alphamin (JSE: APH) always releases a detailed operational update before giving the market formal quarterly financials. It’s a helpful approach, as the operational update has most of what you need to know anyway.
For the three months to September, the production story was flat on a sequential basis. Contained tin produced barely changed at all, while sales were up by 1%.
That’s fine when tin prices are doing well, with a 5% increase in the average tin price achieved vs. the three months to June 2026. One of the major drivers of tin prices at the moment is the AI industry, as this commodity is needed in data centres and semiconductor supply chains. That doesn’t do much good for tinned food inflation, but Alphamin doesn’t (and shouldn’t) care which sector uses the tin.
The challenge is that all-in sustaining cost (AISC) increased by 8%. Some of this is due to royalties and other items directly linked to tin prices, but there are also inflationary pressures across the mining sector that are similarly visible at Alphamin.
Due to the cost increase, Alphamin’s EBITDA only moved 2% higher vs. the June quarter. This is reflected in the share price, which has been choppy in 2026 after rallying sharply in late 2025:
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the company has flagged a historically difficult period in terms of weather-driven logistical challenges. They’ve noted that El Niño could create a more disruptive rainy season than usual. The weather is just one of the typical risks facing an African mining company.
Drilling work continues at Mpama South and Mpama North as the company keeps an eye on its future resource needs. It’s a highly specialised field, with Alphamin using a combination of helicopter-borne electromagnetic and magnetic surveys, surface drilling, underground drilling and geochemical soil sampling.
Do your own research and speak to your financial advisor. Nothing you read or listen to in Ghost Mail should be interpreted as financial advice. This is not a complete review of SENS and does not replace the need for you to refer to company announcements and reports yourself. Every effort is made to avoid errors in Ghost Bites and related podcasts, but I am only human.
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Global markets update with Shaun Murison
US equities pushed to fresh record territory yesterday, but a renewed rise in yields and oil prices this morning has taken some of the shine off risk appetite ahead of tonight's FOMC minutes.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at new highs, while the Dow also posted gains. Sentiment was supported by a pullback in oil prices on news of rising Gulf exports and a European diesel release, alongside a marginal retracement in US Treasury yields.
That relief has proved short lived. The US 10-year yield is back at multi decade highs this morning, and oil prices are rebounding after Yemen's Iran backed Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia and as a storm in the Gulf of Mexico heads towards US oil producing areas. Asian equity markets are mostly lower in early trade.
The Dollar Index slipped yesterday as yields eased, but it is back above 102 this morning and trading close to its high for the year. The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release this evening, while Fed officials Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem are also due to speak later today. Gold has given up yesterday's gains as the dollar firms.
The rand is slightly weaker this morning after clawing back some of its losses against the greenback yesterday. We expect a softer open for the JSE All Share Index.
This update is provided by Shaun Murison, Senior Market Analyst at randswiss.com. Connect with him on LinkedIn here and follow him on X here.
Key Indicators:
USD/ZAR R16.59/$ | US 10yr 5.31% | Gold $4,132/oz | Platinum $1,701/oz | Brent Crude $101.27