Dankie, SARB
Good morning {{first_name}},
The good news: the SARB hasn’t told consumers to take a hike. Based on the numbers we’ve just seen out of Cashbuild and Mr Price, that’s a good thing. South Africans cannot possibly take any further punishment from inflation shocks like oil prices.
Speaking of shocks, I’m afraid that for the first time in 6 years, the Ghost Mail website was hacked. I’m waiting to understand the cause from my technology partners, but in the meantime I need to issue a very important warning.
If you saw this on the website at any point in the past day or so, but especially Wednesday night, then please read very carefully:
See that weird captcha box? The one that has NEVER been there before? There’s a reason for that.
My antivirus was burning bright red when I tried to go on the site on Wednesday night to write Ghost Bites, which is how I knew something was broken. At that stage we didn’t know the details and we took the site down out of caution.
I now have enough details to know that it’s very important to share this with you, especially as I’ve heard from some readers that their antivirus may not have been strong enough to pick this up.
If you clicked on the box - and then even worse, followed the prompts and allowed it to make changes to your computer - then PLEASE contact your IT professional immediately and get your machine checked out.
It really upsets me to even have to write this. The internet is wonderful, yet also terrible. There are many bad actors out there and AI is making everything even worse. Please always apply common sense to what you do on the internet and make sure you have top quality antivirus software.
The website has been taken down again out of caution. It will stay down until I am convinced by my partners that it has been fixed. I am not a tech guy, but I’m doing my best to protect my readers. Please also do everything you can to be vigilant and protect yourself from this nonsense out there.
No website? But there’s YouTube…
Never waste a good crisis, right? I’m certainly not making light of the situation, but it has forced me to do my first ever audio-only Ghost Bites - including the Nibbles!
It takes much longer than a written version, so I didn’t get to everything. But I did cover some really important stories, with a number of charts and other fun stuff along the way to make this content easier to understand.
It’s available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify as well, but I recommend checking it out on YouTube. Wherever you listen to it, please like / comment / subscribe - and leave a rating! This stuff really helps.
Ghost Bites Podcast - making sense of SENS
The latest episode covers:
Cashbuild’s Q4 sales numbers
Mr Price’s quarterly sales
Sirius Real Estate’s latest deal in Germany
The Nibbles, including important director dealings and various other important updates
The Finance Ghost plugged in with Capitec
Maurice van Heerden explains his approach: entrepreneurship without excuses. It’s about building a winning culture that rewards performance and self-starters. The results speak for themselves!
Due diligence decoded: inside the modern deal risk process
Once the letter of intent is signed, the real work begins. The Forvis Mazars team joined me recently to explain key due diligence concepts across financial, tax, HR and ESG workstreams.
Global markets update with Shaun Murison
Global markets came under significant pressure yesterday. The Middle Eastern conflict pushed Brent above $100 and lifted Treasury yields to year highs. Adding to the negative sentiment, markets remain wary of AI spend, evidenced by Alphabet falling almost 7% despite stellar results across all metrics, as focus centred on capex guidance now forecast at $205 billion. Tesla fell 15%.
Amid the chaos, the Trump administration announced further tariffs on sixty trade partners. Rising costs have increased the probability of the Fed raising rates twice this year, with a one in three chance of a hike next week.
Asian equity markets are being led lower by semiconductor stocks, with South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei the hardest hit.
US and European futures are flat this morning.
The rand weakened notably in risk off trade, largely following the SARB's surprise decision not to raise local lending rates yesterday despite an uptick in inflation, with year on year CPI now at 5%, well above the 3% reserve bank target. We expect a flat to slightly negative start for the JSE All Share Index.
This update is provided by Shaun Murison, Senior Market Analyst at randswiss.com. Connect with him on LinkedIn here and follow him on X here.
Key Indicators:
USD/ZAR R16.80/$ | US 10yr 4.71% | Gold $4,036/oz | Platinum $1,595/oz | Brent Crude $86.34