Canal+ counting chickens
Good morning {{first_name}},
I come to you with good news this morning.
Firstly, I remembered that it is in fact the morning, so I’ve now updated the first line of this mailer after making the mistake that I just knew I was going to make yesterday.
Fellow ADHD bunnies will know that you can achieve incredible things with your brain, while also missing something annoyingly obvious, like saying good afternoon instead of good morning. Anyway, we persevere.
Secondly, the website is working. I know, right? Amazing!
This means that I’ve fully caught up on Ghost Bites. This one dealt with Wednesday to Friday’s news. The latest one dealt with Monday and yesterday’s news.
It’s been a rough time, but also an exciting one. For the first time, a Ghost Bites video on YouTube went through the milestone of over 1k views.
I want to be clear here: the YouTube videos don’t replace the long-form, written Ghost Bites. I believe it is critically important to have a written set of notes for us all to refer to. But the videos do give me a wonderful opportunity to explain concepts in a different way, with charts and other visual fun along the way. If you haven’t checked out the channel yet, please do so here.
Thanks for bearing with me - I received so many lovely messages from readers along the way. It’s a good reminder of just how important this ecosystem is. It’s not a responsibility I take lightly, even if I sometimes get the time of the day wrong!
Enjoy your Ghost Mail this afternoon (just kidding!)
Ghost Bites - making sense of SENS
Canal+ is telling a bullish story about the MultiChoice turnaround. June saw the best subscriber acquisition month in over a decade. Considering they were selling subscriptions to watch the world’s premier sporting event at discounted prices, I’m not surprised. The real metric will be subscriber retention, not acquisition. This inspired the poll (yes, it’s back!) in Ghost Bites this morning.
Other updates covered:
Boxer fights in a deflationary ring
Kumba Iron Ore’s dividend more than halved
Merafe’s HEPS caught many by surprise
Mpact is having a tough time (again)
Vodacom is all about pyramids and profits
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Global markets update with Shaun Murison
US markets closed mixed overnight, with the Dow up, the S&P 500 marginally higher and the Nasdaq lower on the day. Selling in AI related stocks continued, although the broader market held up reasonably well and defence stocks were strong.
Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm are among the big US tech names reporting earnings today, which will guide direction in the sector, with Apple and Amazon still to report later this week. While tech earnings in the US and Asia have been strong, shares are priced for perfection and capex, cash flows and earnings sustainability are under close scrutiny.
In South Korea, SK Hynix results showed profit increased well over 500%, though this was a slight miss on consensus, and the KOSPI has fallen a further 12% this morning. Japan's Nikkei is lower, led by tech, while internet giants Alibaba and Tencent have helped push the Hang Seng higher.
Oil prices have rebounded this morning on news that the fragile Middle East ceasefire could be unravelling after the US intercepted ballistic missiles from Iran.
Adding to today's market angst is the Fed rates decision and policy statement this evening, with the implied probability of a hike at today's meeting below 40%. The dollar index has retraced marginally off yesterday's highs, and precious metal prices appear to have stabilised for now after overnight weakness.
The rand is flat to marginally weaker this morning, and we expect the JSE All Share Index to open in similar fashion.
This update is provided by Shaun Murison, Senior Market Analyst at randswiss.com. Connect with him on LinkedIn here and follow him on X here.
Key Indicators:
USD/ZAR R16.71/$ | US 10yr 4.62% | Gold $4,045/oz | Platinum $1,615/oz | Brent Crude $80.45