All eyes on MTN
Good morning {{first_name}},
As I flagged yesterday, the MTN updates were still coming your way. I wanted an opportunity to dig into them in detail. I’m glad I took this approach, as there’s a lot to consider.
The market has slashed the share price in response to the latest numbers, with MTN Nigeria’s second quarter as the main cause for concern. This Ghost Bites is dedicated entirely to MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana, as well as all of yesterday’s Nibbles.
Later today, I’ll bring you the financial services duo of Nedbank and the JSE, as well as a few other updates from the past day or so.
I’m also very happy to bring you the latest podcast with Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix. Siya is always a vibe, bringing a great mix of passion and market knowledge to the discussion. In this particular one, we talked about the importance of market benchmarks and putting performance in context. You can enjoy it here.
Ghost Bites - making sense of SENS
MTN is the focus of this edition of Ghost Bites. With results from MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana out in the wild, things look fine over a six-month view. But if you dig deeper into those numbers in Nigeria, you’ll see why the market is scared.
For a view from a completely different sector, check out the latest episode of Investec’s excellent No Ordinary Wednesday podcast. They bring you news from the world of AI, with two Investec analysts having recently attended technology conferences in Boston and San Fran. There’s nothing quite like on-the-ground knowledge!
Have a great morning. I look forward to bringing you the next set of updates around lunchtime today.
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Japan: no matcha for Chinese disruption
The Chinese disruption playbook has been incredible to observe in the automotive industry. As Dominique Olivier explains, Japan is at risk of the same thing happening in matcha. Green powder has become a red ocean of competition.
Putting performance in context
If you can’t choose the right benchmark, you also can’t measure your performance. This is a complex subject, requiring an understanding of the underlying assets and their risk profile. Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix joined me to unpack these concepts.
Global markets update with Shaun Murison
Asian markets picked up where Wall Street left off, with strong gains across the board and a sharp rebound in major semiconductor stocks. Tech sector gains largely ignored earnings misses from SpaceX and AMD.
Much of the short term market euphoria has stemmed from news that mediators have made progress in efforts to end the US-Iran war, with a framework towards resolution said to be near completion and ready to present. Iran has still not confirmed it is actually in talks with the US, but it does appear that meetings were taking place through third parties.
Brent crude reflected this progress, having renewed its sharp decline yesterday, a move that is extending further this morning. The move in oil eased pressure on bond yields and softened the dollar as markets lowered the probability of Fed tightening. The CME FedWatch tool suggests a 57% chance of tightening in September, down from 67% the day before. The softer dollar has helped firm metal prices, with gold and silver notable beneficiaries in the short term.
The rand has gained and the JSE All Share index is expected to open higher.
Outside of war negotiations, data points to watch today include EU and US PMI data as well as ADP Non-Farm Payroll data.
This update is provided by Shaun Murison, Senior Market Analyst at randswiss.com. Connect with him on LinkedIn here and follow him on X here.
Key Indicators:
USD/ZAR R16.34/$ | US 10yr 4.60% | Gold $4,177/oz | Platinum $1,792/oz | Brent Crude $76.73